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13

Viviana

3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 62

Redcar · Marske Fabrication And Engineering Straight Mile Handicap · 7f 219y

#11

Rank

Odds

28/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back on track when second of 7 in handicap at Carlisle (7f, good to firm) last month and excuses on each of her 2 starts since, unsuited by the emphasis on speed when last of 6 at Kempton (7f) 2 weeks ago. Certainly not one to write off with the step up to 1m worth exploring.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Redcar 30/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 5f217y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS30/0444 @ Yarmouth 13/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR - · 6f3y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Wetherby 04/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 5f110y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS4/0646 @ Musselburgh 22/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 65 · 7f15y Gd 134 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Beverley 14/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 64 · 7f96y Goo 129 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 64 par14/075OR 646 @ Carlisle 11/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 62 · 6f195y Goo 134 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Kempton 19/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 62 · 7f Sta 127 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 62 par19/085OR 625 @ Kempton 02/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 63 · 7f Sta 134 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 63 par2/095OR 63projClass-projected finish: 13th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Kempton56th6th0
2026-08-19Kempton57th7th0
2026-08-11Carlisle62nd3rd−1
2026-07-14Beverley54th4th0
2026-06-22Musselburgh65th6th−1
2026-06-04Wetherby46th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0422/0619/082/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 12-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/04/20263rd22/10%60%+0.60
13/05/20263rd13/266%33%-0.32
04/06/20266th15/261%0%-0.61
22/06/20265th7/163%50%-0.13
14/07/20264th13/266%57%-0.09
11/08/20262nd7/282%83%+0.02
19/08/20267th10/147%33%-0.14
02/09/20266th10/147%0%-0.47