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10

Anaisa

3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 75

Redcar · Start Your RacingTV Free Trial Now Handicap · 5f 217y

#9

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Found it hard in handicaps after winning a Ripon listed event last summer but bounced back to her best off a reduced mark when close third at Newcastle on all-weather debut 10 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 86 · 6f Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 86 par20/091OR 861 @ Newmarket 31/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 19 · OR 85 · 6f Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 85 par3 @ Pontefract 21/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 84 · 6f Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 84 par21/043OR 843 @ Newmarket 01/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 84 · 6f GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 84 par3 @ Ripon 17/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 83 · 6f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 83 par17/053OR 834 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 81 · 5f89y Goo 136 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 16th of 20 · OR 78 · 6f Goo 132 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 78 par15/084OR 784 @ Ripon 01/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 75 · 6f Sft 133 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Newcastle 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 75 · 6f Std 129 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 75 par5/094OR 75projClass-projected finish: 8th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Newcastle43rd3rd0
2026-09-01Ripon47th7th0
2026-08-15Ripon416th16th0
2026-07-24York46th6th0
2026-05-17Ripon34th3rd+1
2026-05-01Newmarket35th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/091/0515/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength54%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/09/202511th66/10%23%+0.23
31/10/20259th80/10%56%+0.56
21/04/20264th12/137%50%+0.13
01/05/20265th12/137%60%+0.23
17/05/20264th5/174%63%-0.11
24/07/20266th22/10%55%+0.55
15/08/202616th50/10%21%+0.21
01/09/20267th33/10%33%+0.33
05/09/20263rd11/271%67%-0.04