9
Come On Over
3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 75
Redcar · Start Your RacingTV Free Trial Now Handicap · 5f 217y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
86%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength33%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Lingfield | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Redcar | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Doncaster | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Nottingham | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Doncaster | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Doncaster | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2026 | 11th | 11/1 | 42% | 23% | -0.19 |
| 28/05/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 30% | +0.14 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 77% | +0.72 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |