13
Hover On The Wind
6yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 71
Redcar · Start Your RacingTV Free Trial Now Handicap · 5f 217y
#12
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Redcar | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Thirsk | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Pontefract | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Pontefract | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Pontefract | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength15%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 11th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 12/05/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 21/05/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 17/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 14/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 22/08/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |