1
Papa Cocktail
7yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 82
Redcar · Start Your RacingTV Free Trial Now Handicap · 5f 217y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Southwell | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Doncaster | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Windsor | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Doncaster | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Doncaster | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength73%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 23/05/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 53% | +0.37 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 82% | +0.00 |
| 31/07/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 44% | -0.21 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |