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5

Reigning Profit

7yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 77

Redcar · Start Your RacingTV Free Trial Now Handicap · 5f 217y

#13

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★ Timeform

Commentary

Benefited from a more positive ride when getting off the mark for the season at Ripon in July but 4 lesser runs have followed, failing to beat a rival the last twice.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength57%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 76 · 5f7y Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 76 par17/053OR 762 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 76 · 5f Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Pontefract 21/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 78 · 5f3y Goo 133 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 78 par21/064OR 783 @ Hamilton 25/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 78 · 5f7y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Ripon 06/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 77 · 5f Goo 137 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 77 par6/074OR 773 @ Pontefract 17/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 77 · 5f3y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 77 par2 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 23 · OR 81 · 5f Goo 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 81 par28/072OR 812 @ Pontefract 16/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 80 · 5f3y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Ripon 01/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 78 · 6f Sft 138 · below its mark01/09/2026 · OR 78 par1/094OR 78projClass-projected finish: 13th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Ripon410th10th0
2026-08-16Pontefract28th6th+2
2026-07-28Goodwood211th9th+2
2026-07-17Pontefract35th4th+1
2026-07-06Ripon41st1st0
2026-06-25Hamilton36th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0525/0628/071/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength6%

Delivery trend +0.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/05/20262nd13/266%92%+0.26
23/05/202610th10/147%40%-0.07
21/06/20264th17/255%63%+0.07
25/06/20266th9/276%29%-0.48
06/07/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
17/07/20265th17/255%33%-0.22
28/07/202611th50/10%55%+0.55
16/08/20268th20/10%0%0.00
01/09/202610th25/10%0%0.00