3
Sir Garfield
5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 80
Redcar · Start Your RacingTV Free Trial Now Handicap · 5f 217y
#8
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Goodwood | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Hamilton | 2 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-07-01 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Catterick | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength44%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 55% | -0.01 |
| 18/10/2025 | 10th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 04/11/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 08/04/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 17/07/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 29/07/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 72% | +0.19 |
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 21/08/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 30% | -0.54 |