14
Spirit Of Applause
6yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 69
Redcar · Start Your RacingTV Free Trial Now Handicap · 5f 217y
#4
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Ripon | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Redcar | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-05 | Pontefract | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Doncaster | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Nottingham | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 85% | -0.08 |
| 17/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 02/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 24/07/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |
| 01/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |