15
Sugar Baby
8yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 69
Redcar · Start Your RacingTV Free Trial Now Handicap · 5f 217y
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Redcar | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-05 | Pontefract | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 19th | 19th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Doncaster | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Redcar | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength14%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.44 |
| 22/11/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 25/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 24/07/2026 | 19th | 28/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 05/08/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 60% | +0.05 |