12
Zarvali
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 74
Redcar · Start Your RacingTV Free Trial Now Handicap · 5f 217y
#11
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Carlisle | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Thirsk | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Musselburgh | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | York | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 10-14 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 22/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 74% | +0.74 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 78% | -0.05 |
| 10/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 07/08/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 10% | -0.16 |
| 14/08/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 14% | -0.41 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |