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Magical Merlot

3yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 78

Redcar · Market Cross Jewellers Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 1y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

26%

Place Prob

29%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended juvenile campaign with success at Brighton (1m) in the autumn. Mixed bag so far this season but better start/prominent pitch undoubtedly helped when adding to his tally over this trip at Newbury 3 weeks ago. That may not prove his limit at this trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Thirsk 29/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 7f218y Gd 13029/0855 @ Southwell 03/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 7f14y Std 1334 @ Brighton 16/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 75 · 7f216y Goo 130 · beat its mark16/10/2025 · OR 75 par16/104OR 754 @ Southwell 07/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 77 · 1m13y Std 132 · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Windsor 11/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 77 · 1m31y Goo 132 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 77 par11/054OR 772 @ Musselburgh 06/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 78 · 1m208y Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Lingfield 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 78 · 1m1f Goo 128 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 78 par27/064OR 784 @ Windsor 13/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 77 · 1m31y GF 127 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Newbury 26/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 75 · 1m2f GF 130 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 75 par26/084OR 75projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Newbury41st1st0
2026-08-13Windsor44th4th0
2026-06-27Lingfield43rd3rd0
2026-06-06Musselburgh24th2nd+2
2026-05-11Windsor43rd3rd0
2026-04-07Southwell45th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/087/0427/0626/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength68%

Delivery trend -1.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/08/20253rd13/266%80%+0.14
03/10/20252nd7/491%88%-0.03
16/10/20251st10/1195%100%+0.05
07/04/20265th7/282%33%-0.48
11/05/20263rd15/261%82%+0.21
06/06/20264th9/488%50%-0.38
27/06/20263rd11/893%50%-0.43
13/08/20264th4/179%57%-0.22
26/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21