1
Obito
4yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 86
Redcar · Market Cross Jewellers Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 1y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
26%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Goodwood | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Doncaster | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Ayr | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hamilton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hamilton | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength91%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 30/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 04/11/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.28 |
| 15/05/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 22% | -0.44 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 18/5 | 81% | 86% | +0.05 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 43% | -0.12 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |