3
Pol Roger
6yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 77
Redcar · Market Cross Jewellers Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 1y
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Haydock | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Ayr | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Pontefract | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Thirsk | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength68%
Delivery trend +7.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 04/11/2025 | 13th | 10/1 | 47% | 8% | -0.40 |
| 21/11/2025 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 10/04/2026 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 42% | -0.14 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 92% | +0.65 |