2
Supplicate
3yo Filly · 9-12 · OR 87
Redcar · Market Cross Jewellers Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 1y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
52%
Place Prob
41%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Salisbury | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Nottingham | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Bath | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-03 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Kempton | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 64% | -0.02 |
| 03/12/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |