IvyArcIvyArc
1

All Good

3yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 69

Redcar · Try RacingTV Free Now At racingtv.com/freetrial Fillies' Handicap · 5f

#5

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

No impact in a couple of all-weather maidens last autumn but despite residual inexperience, showed much improved form when making a winning return/turf debut in 6-runner Ripon novice (6f) 6 weeks ago. Further progress needed from this mark now handicapping but she's in good hands to do so.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength17%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 19/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 6f Std 12619/0955 @ Newcastle 14/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 5f Std 12814/1054 @ Ripon 03/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS3/084projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-03Ripon41st0th+1
2025-10-14Newcastle57th7th0
2025-09-19Newcastle58th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0914/103/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +31.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/09/20258th40/10%36%+0.36
14/10/20257th28/10%14%+0.14
03/08/20261st28/10%100%+1.00