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5

Startling

4yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 65

Redcar · Try RacingTV Free Now At racingtv.com/freetrial Fillies' Handicap · 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

66%

Place Prob

48%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A 4-time winner over 5f for David O'Meara who has been holding her form very well for present yard, producing a career best in retained blinkers when scoring at Southwell (5f) 12 days ago. This tougher up in class but she's hard to rule out in present groove.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 02/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 63 · 5f Std 133 · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 63 par2/106OR 636 @ Redcar 18/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 62 · 5f217y Goo 132 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 60 · 5f Gd 132 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 60 par5/065OR 605 @ Southwell 18/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 60 · 4f214y Std 133 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Leicester 25/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 60 · 5f GF 126 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 60 par25/065OR 605 @ Doncaster 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 61 · 5f3y GF 134 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 60 · 5f Goo 138 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 60 par27/076OR 606 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 60 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Southwell 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 60 · 4f215y Std 135 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 60 par3/096OR 60projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Southwell61st2nd−1
2026-08-08Ayr62nd3rd−1
2026-07-27Ayr62nd3rd−1
2026-07-18Doncaster54th4th0
2026-06-25Leicester52nd2nd0
2026-06-18Southwell52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/1018/0627/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength85%

Delivery trend -4.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/10/20256th16/116%58%+0.43
18/05/20268th66/10%30%+0.30
05/06/20263rd33/10%80%+0.80
18/06/20262nd9/153%86%+0.33
25/06/20262nd4/696%50%-0.46
18/07/20264th5/174%25%-0.49
27/07/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07
08/08/20262nd16/116%91%+0.75
03/09/20261st1/195%100%+0.05