11
Albegone
8yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 58
Redcar · Watch Racing TV In Stunning HD Handicap · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Carlisle | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Musselburgh | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Thirsk | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Catterick | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Catterick | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength98%
Delivery trend +5.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 16/06/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 22/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 15/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |