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6yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 63

Redcar · Watch Racing TV In Stunning HD Handicap · 5f

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual winner on all-weather/turf in the spring who ran well when twice placed at Pontefract earlier this summer. Not operating at the same level away from that venue on last 2 starts, though lurks on a handy mark if he can bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength70%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Pontefract 21/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 68 · 5f3y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 68 par21/045OR 685 @ Ripon 08/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 71 · 5f Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Pontefract 22/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 71 · 5f3y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 71 par22/055OR 715 @ Ripon 03/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 70 · 5f Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Pontefract 29/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 69 · 5f3y Goo 141 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 69 par29/065OR 695 @ Pontefract 07/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 69 · 5f3y Goo 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Pontefract 05/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 68 · 5f3y Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 68 par5/085OR 685 @ Catterick 17/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 68 · 5f Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Ripon 31/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 66 · 5f Sft 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 66 par31/085OR 66projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Ripon58th7th+1
2026-08-17Catterick56th5th+1
2026-08-05Pontefract54th3rd+1
2026-07-07Pontefract53rd2nd+1
2026-06-29Pontefract52nd1st+1
2026-06-03Ripon56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/043/065/0831/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength61%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/04/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
08/05/20262nd11/588%86%-0.03
22/05/20269th8/158%11%-0.47
03/06/20266th13/266%29%-0.37
29/06/20262nd10/147%86%+0.38
07/07/20263rd7/282%67%-0.15
05/08/20264th4/179%63%-0.16
17/08/20266th8/158%50%-0.08
31/08/20268th14/126%13%-0.14