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4yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 54

Redcar · Watch Racing TV In Stunning HD Handicap · 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

85%

Place Prob

64%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner who landed second leg of a double from this mark at Catterick (5f) last spring. Steadily worked her way back to form in handful of starts this season, not disgraced by any means when third at Catterick (5f) 4 weeks ago. Return to class 6 company in her favour now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Redcar 19/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 48 · 5f Goo 121 · beat its mark19/05/2025 · OR 48 par19/056OR 486 @ Catterick 30/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 48 · 5f Goo 134 · beat its mark30/05/2025 · OR 48 par5 @ Beverley 05/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 64 · 5f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 64 par5/075OR 645 @ Ripon 04/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 62 · 5f Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/08/2025 · OR 62 par5 @ Catterick 18/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 61 · 5f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/08/2025 · OR 61 par18/085OR 615 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 59 · 5f Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Pontefract 07/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 56 · 5f3y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 56 par7/075OR 566 @ Ripon 27/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 54 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 54 par5 @ Catterick 17/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 54 · 5f Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 54 par17/085OR 54projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-17Catterick53rd2nd+1
2026-07-27Ripon63rd3rd0
2026-07-07Pontefract54th3rd+1
2026-06-05Thirsk59th8th+1
2025-08-18Catterick58th7th+1
2025-08-04Ripon52nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/054/087/0717/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength48%

Delivery trend -3.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/05/20251st66/10%100%+1.00
30/05/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
05/07/20257th5/174%25%-0.49
04/08/20252nd17/255%86%+0.30
18/08/20258th10/147%0%-0.47
05/06/20269th22/10%20%+0.20
07/07/20264th22/10%50%+0.50
27/07/20263rd5/287%60%-0.27
17/08/20263rd9/153%80%+0.27