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8

Dc Cogent

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 61

Redcar · Watch Racing TV In Stunning HD Handicap · 5f

#11

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains with just an all-weather maiden victory to his name but he's a largely consistent sort and quickly dispelled a lesser effort when third over 5f at Newcastle 12 days ago. However, that is not the first time he's shaped like a return to 6f may suit ideally.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 20/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 69 · 6f16y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/02/2026 · OR 69 par20/025OR 695 @ Southwell 10/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 68 · 6f16y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/03/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Newcastle 13/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 67 · 5f Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 67 par13/045OR 675 @ Nottingham 09/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 66 · 5f8y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Carlisle 18/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 66 · 5f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 66 par18/055OR 665 @ Ripon 28/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 66 · 5f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/05/2026 · OR 66 par6 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 64 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 64 par16/066OR 646 @ Beverley 20/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 64 · 5f Goo 134 · below its mark20/07/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 62 · 5f Std 132 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 62 par3/096OR 62projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Newcastle63rd3rd0
2026-07-20Beverley67th7th0
2026-06-16Thirsk63rd3rd0
2026-05-28Ripon58th7th+1
2026-05-18Carlisle56th5th+1
2026-05-09Nottingham53rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/029/0516/063/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength33%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/02/20266th5/174%55%-0.19
10/03/20264th5/174%70%-0.04
13/04/20264th10/382%63%-0.20
09/05/20263rd5/174%75%+0.01
18/05/20266th4/179%44%-0.35
28/05/20268th8/158%0%-0.58
16/06/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62
20/07/20267th16/116%33%+0.18
03/09/20263rd9/488%71%-0.17