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Golden Havana

3yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 65

Redcar · Watch Racing TV In Stunning HD Handicap · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

17/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended 2025 with success at Newcastle (5f) in December and consistent in defeat this season, finding only one too good for third successive start at Beverley (5f) in July. Three-day turnaround may have caught him out later that month and no surprise to see him make a better fist of things here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength66%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 16/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 60 · 5f Std 135 · beat its mark16/12/2025 · OR 60 par16/126OR 606 @ Newcastle 31/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 62 · 6f Std 132 · below its mark31/01/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Newcastle 20/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 62 · 5f Std 132 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 62 par20/046OR 626 @ Newcastle 19/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 63 · 5f Std 134 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 63 · 5f Std 134 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 63 par2/066OR 635 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 62 · 5f Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 64 · 5f GF 134 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 64 par20/076OR 645 @ Beverley 28/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 64 · 5f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 64 · 5f1y Gd 135 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 64 par31/076OR 64projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Musselburgh65th5th0
2026-07-28Beverley52nd1st+1
2026-07-20Ayr62nd2nd0
2026-06-16Thirsk52nd1st+1
2026-06-02Newcastle63rd3rd0
2026-05-19Newcastle63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1219/0520/0731/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 3-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength36%

Delivery trend -6.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/12/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
31/01/20267th25/10%14%+0.14
20/04/20264th12/137%70%+0.33
19/05/20263rd7/163%82%+0.19
02/06/20263rd9/276%60%-0.16
16/06/20262nd16/116%83%+0.68
20/07/20262nd10/382%80%-0.02
28/07/20262nd9/153%88%+0.35
31/07/20265th9/488%20%-0.68