Houndhill
3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 64
Redcar · Watch Racing TV In Stunning HD Handicap · 5f
#10
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Redcar | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newcastle | 5 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Thirsk | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thirsk | 5 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | 4 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-05-19 | Newcastle | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/05/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 19/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 12/06/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 01/07/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 16/07/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |