10
Hurt You Never
7yo Mare · 9-5 · OR 58
Redcar · Watch Racing TV In Stunning HD Handicap · 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength55%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Newcastle | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Nottingham | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Beverley | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Doncaster | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Nottingham | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength3%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 18/05/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |
| 03/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 20/07/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 11% | -0.31 |
| 03/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 11/08/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 03/09/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |