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12

Midnight Lir

5yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 57

Redcar · Watch Racing TV In Stunning HD Handicap · 5f

#9

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

On a long losing run and a switch of headgear (fitted with a visor) failed to spark a revival when ninth of 12 at Carlisle (5f) 6 days ago. Cheekpieces now reached for.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Doncaster 19/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 65 · 5f3y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/07/2025 · OR 65 par19/075OR 656 @ Newcastle 02/10/2025 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 65 · 5f Std 135 · below its mark02/10/2025 · OR 65 par6 @ Hamilton 03/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 64 · 5f7y Gd 135 · below its mark03/05/2026 · OR 64 par3/056OR 646 @ Carlisle 29/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 61 · 5f Goo 131 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 61 · 5f Goo 132 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 61 par16/066OR 615 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 61 · 5f Gd 147 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Thirsk 24/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 60 · 5f Goo 138 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 60 par24/076OR 606 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 59 · 5f Goo 134 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 57 · 5f Goo 133 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 57 par9/096OR 57projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Carlisle69th9th0
2026-08-08Ayr68th8th0
2026-07-24Thirsk64th4th0
2026-07-05Ayr54th3rd+1
2026-06-16Thirsk64th4th0
2026-05-29Carlisle63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0729/0524/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength6%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/07/20256th10/382%29%-0.54
02/10/202512th12/137%8%-0.29
03/05/20269th17/255%27%-0.28
29/05/20263rd12/137%78%+0.41
16/06/20264th7/163%67%+0.04
05/07/20264th10/147%50%+0.03
24/07/20264th3/184%63%-0.22
08/08/20268th18/15%36%+0.31
09/09/20269th6/168%27%-0.41