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2

Biondettisnitemare

4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 66

Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength66%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Thistledown 24/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 65 · 6f Fas 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/06/2025 · OR 65 par24/06C5OR 65C8 @ Thistledown 05/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 63 · 6f 117 · below its mark05/08/2025 · OR 63 parC8 @ Thistledown 02/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 67 · 1m 115 · below its mark02/09/2025 · OR 67 par2/09C8OR 67C8 @ Thistledown 25/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 64 · 6f 112 · below its mark25/09/2025 · OR 64 parC8 @ Thistledown 10/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 61 · 6f 115 · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 61 par10/10C8OR 61C5 @ Mahoning Valley 21/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 57 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/10/2025 · OR 57 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 20/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 60 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/11/2025 · OR 60 par20/11C5OR 60C5 @ Mahoning Valley 23/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 64 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/12/2025 · OR 64 parC8 @ Thistledown 26/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 67 · 5f110y Fas 119 · below its mark26/08/2026 · OR 67 par26/08C8OR 67projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2025-12-23Mahoning Valley?9th6th+3
2025-11-20Mahoning Valley?2nd-1th+3
2025-10-21Mahoning Valley?2nd-1th+3
2025-10-10Thistledown?2nd2nd0
2025-09-25Thistledown?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0625/0920/1126/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength58%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/06/20251st5/493%100%+0.07
05/08/20253rd9/488%33%-0.55
02/09/20255th9/488%0%-0.88
25/09/20254th7/163%40%-0.23
10/10/20252nd13/266%83%+0.18
21/10/20252nd5/493%83%-0.10
20/11/20252nd7/163%86%+0.23
23/12/20259th9/153%0%-0.53
26/08/20263rd6/168%50%-0.18