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4

Jilly Runs Deep

4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 53

Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

46%

Place Prob

39%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength79%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: +1.9
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Thistledown 12/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS12/08C6C6 @ Thistledown 02/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 50 · 5f110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/09/2025 · OR 50 parC6 @ Thistledown 08/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 50 · 6f Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 50 par8/10C6OR 50C6 @ Mahoning Valley 06/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 49 · 1m Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/11/2025 · OR 49 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 25/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 51 · 6f Slo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/11/2025 · OR 51 par25/11C5OR 51C5 @ Mahoning Valley 09/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 55 · 1m Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/12/2025 · OR 55 parC8 @ Thistledown 20/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 51 · 6f 119 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 51 par20/07C8OR 51C5 @ Thistledown 13/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 49 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 49 parC5 @ Thistledown 26/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 52 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 52 par26/08C5OR 52projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Thistledown?2nd-1th+3
2026-08-13Thistledown?2nd-1th+3
2026-07-20Thistledown?1st1st0
2025-12-09Mahoning Valley?3rd0th+3
2025-11-25Mahoning Valley?4th1st+3
2025-11-06Mahoning Valley?1st-1th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/086/1120/0726/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/08/20252nd4/179%83%+0.04
02/09/20252nd4/696%67%-0.30
08/10/20253rd5/287%60%-0.27
06/11/20251st4/797%100%+0.03
25/11/20254th7/163%50%-0.13
09/12/20253rd11/486%67%-0.19
20/07/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
13/08/20262nd12/137%80%+0.43
26/08/20262nd9/488%83%-0.05