6
Lil Sharpie
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 62
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength67%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-03-16 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-02-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 05/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 04/02/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 26/02/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 16/03/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 08/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 20/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 12/05/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 11% | -0.52 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |