3
Tipsy Tulip
3yo Filly · 8-5 · OR 57
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/5
Win Prob
46%
Place Prob
39%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength61%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 1.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength97%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |