6
Gabadost
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 39
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-10-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-06 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength32%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 21/06/2025 | 1st | 40/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 14/07/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 06/08/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |
| 16/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 03/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 23/10/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 29% | -0.37 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |