1
Jac's Cocoabella
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 58
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-03-31 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength79%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 05/01/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 04/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 19/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 12/03/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 31/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 12/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |