5
Rivers Angel
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 54
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-07-17 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 02/09/2025 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 14/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |