7
Stacy Ellen
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 51
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength10%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 05/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 04/02/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 30/03/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 11/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 28/05/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 05/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 26/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |