10
Sweet Vivian
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 32
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
85%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 30/03/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 20/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 26/05/2026 | 8th | 2/1 | 89% | 13% | -0.77 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |