8
Trustthefact
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 37
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-03 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength85%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 26/05/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |