2
Illuminate
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 74
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-08 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength98%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 05/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 71% | -0.21 |
| 20/11/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 08/12/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 27/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |