5
Sassy Walker
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 80
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-01-15 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-12-18 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength58%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 04/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 18/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 15/01/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 05/03/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 30/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |