4
Small Town Gossip
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 73
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength62%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 14/07/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 24/09/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 21/10/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |