4
Drill City
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 66
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength37%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/11/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 11/12/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 03/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 11/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |