3
May Mayhem
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 75
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength53%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 30/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 13/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 27/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 02/06/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 25% | -0.66 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |