7
Pecks Not Bad
8yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 69
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
20%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength57%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 01/10/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 30/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 20/04/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 11/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |