Red Chili Pepper
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 78
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
74%
Place Prob
53%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-09-30 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 17/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 11/08/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 30/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 22/04/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 63% | -0.27 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 04/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |