1

So That's That

4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 58

Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#7

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength20%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mahoning Valley 28/10/2024 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS28/10C6C5 @ Mahoning Valley 15/01/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 60 · 6f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/01/2025 · OR 60 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 11/02/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 60 · 6f Fas 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/02/2025 · OR 60 par11/02C5OR 60C8 @ Thistledown 07/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 58 · 6f Fas 115 · beat its mark07/05/2025 · OR 58 parC8 @ Thistledown 28/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 61 · 6f Fas 115 · below its mark28/05/2025 · OR 61 par28/05C8OR 61C8 @ Thistledown 21/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 65 · 6f Fas 115 · beat its mark21/06/2025 · OR 65 parC8 @ Thistledown 06/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 71 · 1m Fas 115 · below its mark06/08/2025 · OR 71 par6/08C8OR 71C8 @ Thistledown 28/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 71 · 1m 115 · below its mark28/08/2025 · OR 71 parC8 @ Thistledown 18/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 68 · 6f 119 · below its mark18/08/2026 · OR 68 par18/08C8OR 68projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-18Thistledown?6th6th0
2025-08-28Thistledown?6th6th0
2025-08-06Thistledown?7th7th0
2025-06-21Thistledown?1st1st0
2025-05-28Thistledown?7th7th0
2025-05-07Thistledown?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/107/056/0818/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/10/20243rd5/493%67%-0.27
15/01/20255th5/174%20%-0.54
11/02/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
07/05/20252nd15/261%88%+0.27
28/05/20257th3/184%14%-0.70
21/06/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
06/08/20257th6/168%25%-0.43
28/08/20256th15/261%0%-0.61
18/08/20266th10/147%0%-0.47