2
Dr. Zarnett
9yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 72
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength29%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/03/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 12/05/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 04/06/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 30/09/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 28/07/2026 | 8th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |