3
Nambiti
9yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 66
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength71%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 27/05/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 14/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 26/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |