5

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5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 56

Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength29%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Thistledown 18/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 63 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/09/2025 · OR 63 par18/09C5OR 63C8 @ Thistledown 13/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 57 · 6f 119 · below its mark13/10/2025 · OR 57 parC8 @ Mahoning Valley 28/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 53 · 6f Fas 124 · beat its mark28/10/2025 · OR 53 par28/10C8OR 53C8 @ Mahoning Valley 13/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 56 · 6f 124 · below its mark13/11/2025 · OR 56 parC8 @ Mahoning Valley 21/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 59 · 6f 124 · below its mark21/01/2026 · OR 59 par21/01C8OR 59C8 @ Thistledown 16/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 54 · 5f110y 119 · below its mark16/06/2026 · OR 54 parC8 @ Thistledown 29/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 50 · 6f 123 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 50 par29/06C8OR 50C8 @ Thistledown 10/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 53 · 6f 119 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 53 parC8 @ Thistledown 25/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 56 · 6f 123 · below its mark25/08/2026 · OR 56 par25/08C8OR 56projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-25Thistledown?8th8th0
2026-08-10Thistledown?1st1st0
2026-06-29Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-06-16Thistledown?5th5th0
2026-01-21Mahoning Valley?8th8th0
2025-11-13Mahoning Valley?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0913/1129/0625/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength34%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/20259th15/261%0%-0.61
13/10/20253rd10/147%60%+0.13
28/10/20253rd13/266%67%+0.01
13/11/20256th10/147%0%-0.47
21/01/20268th5/287%0%-0.87
16/06/20265th12/137%0%-0.37
29/06/20263rd14/126%67%+0.40
10/08/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
25/08/20268th12/137%0%-0.37