5

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5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 56
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength34%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 13/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 28/10/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 13/11/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 21/01/2026 | 8th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 29/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 25/08/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |