8
Red Head Kid
7yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 74
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength56%
What the class read says
Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength46%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 22% | -0.41 |
| 20/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 10/04/2026 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 28/04/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 19/08/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |