Sammy And Shorty
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 84
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
78%
Place Prob
58%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-04-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2025-03-11 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-02-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-01-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-01-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2024 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 17% | -0.70 |
| 25/11/2024 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 16/12/2024 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 09/01/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 24/01/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 10/02/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/03/2025 | 4th | 5/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 01/04/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 24/06/2025 | 9th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |