1
Spice Ice
7yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 60
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-05-19 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength12%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/03/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 09/04/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 29/04/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 19/05/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 07/07/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 08/06/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 04/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |