Tale Of The Lyon
7yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 60
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 22/12/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 09/02/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 11/03/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 12/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 25/08/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |