6
Tierney
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 67
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength8%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/02/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 25/03/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 12/05/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/1 | 21% | 50% | +0.29 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |